Why do we mis-predict what really makes us happy?

Have you ever thought…I would be happy if…..or I will be happy when….

If you are like most of us, you may have thought at some stage that you would reach peak happiness after receiving a healthy pay rise, or getting that highly sought after promotion, or perhaps when you score well on an exam that you’ve spent weeks studying for. More commonly, you may have thought you would be happier when you reach your goal weight or purchased a new car or your dream home. Happy when and happy if, really defers happiness until a later point somewhere in the uncertain future. What is certain, is these stories we tell ourselves can prevent us from being happy in the here and now. And what science has actually shown is that we are actually never as happy as we think we will be in these scenarios. In fact, we often overestimate the emotional impacts of these things in our future, this is referred to as impact bias. We believe that these things will make us happier than they actually do (intensity) and we also believe we will be happier for longer than we actually are (duration).

Humans are creatures that experience what's called hedonic adaptation. Hedonic adaptation is when the positive or negative effects on happiness fade over time. More simply, this is when the novelty of something exciting and new has worn off.

For example, a brand new car that you would get so excited to drive, doesn’t quite give you the same thrill three years later on your commute to work. Similarly, a study conducted on happiness reference points revealed that people who earned 30k annually wanted 50k and those who earned 100k annually actually wanted 250k which suggested that the more one had, the more they wanted. Also interestingly to note was that those who received a pay rise were simply more eager for the next pay rise.

Moreover, a phenomenon referred to as counterfactual thinking can also impact how happy we are with our achievements. Cornell University Psychologists Victoria Medvec and Thomas Gilovich and Scott Madey of the University of Toledo explore this notion of people comparing their achievements to others and also to what might have been. A study done comparing the happiness of Olympic medal winners can highlight this phenomenon. Silver medalists' happiness scores are lower to that of Bronze medalists. The counterfactual thinking of the silver medalist is likely focused on comparing themselves to the Gold winner and thinking about how that could have been them. Whereas, the bronze medalist counterfactual thinking is likely focused on how they could have possibly missed out on winning a medal altogether.

Mis-wanting is another reason we are mis-predicting what makes us happy. We are basically wanting the wrong things for happiness. Our point of reference for being happy is often affiliated with productivity and materialism. Both material things and being productive might be great in the moment, but they hardly lead to authentic and lasting happiness. The phrase “money cannot buy happiness” is actually supported by scientific literature and physiological studies. Society and workplaces often project the notion that productivity and accomplishments lead to happiness and fulfilment; however the opposite is more accurate- people are far more productive when they are happy. Mis-wanting often comes in the form of wanting things over experiences. According to psychology data, materialists ended up having lower life satisfaction compared to non materialists and also experienced more mental health disorders in comparison. When it comes to happiness people who invested in experiences instead of material things were much happier in the moment of the experience and retrospectively. They experienced longer lasting happiness as a result. Experiences such as human connection, travel, acts of kindness, nights out with friends, celebrations with family have shown to be a better investment for our happiness.

Happiness is like a tank that we need to refill. Filling our happiness tank comes from authentic experiences and connections, not from materialism. So don't invest in things but rather, invest in experiences.